Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 14, 2001 at 04:35 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 437 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 147.3, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 2223 2222, Boulder K indices: 1223 3322). Region 9370 decayed further and was spotless late in the day. Region 9373 lost quite a bit of its areal coverage and is decaying at a moderate pace. Region 9376 decayed, no spots are visible early on March 14. Region 9379 decayed and is spotless early on March 14. Region 9380 was quiet and stable. New region 9381 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Early on March 14 a new spotted region is visible near the northwest limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on March 14, none were optically correlated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3-B4 level. Coronal holes A small, well placed coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 14. Only minor, if any, effects on the geomagnetic field are likely on March 17-18. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 14-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9370 2001.03.03 4 N11W82 0040 DAO 9373 2001.03.09 37 S07E20 0190 EAI 9374 2001.03.10 S18E15 plage 9375 2001.03.10 S16W84 plage 9376 2001.03.11 3 S13E46 0010 BXO 9377 2001.03.11 S18W26 plage 9378 2001.03.12 N24W45 plage 9379 2001.03.12 2 N31E27 0010 AXX 9380 2001.03.12 1 S10E53 0010 HSX 9381 2001.03.13 3 S19E37 0020 CSO Total number of sunspots: 50 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 sunspot max. 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 152.6 (1) 50.7 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]