Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 10, 2001 at 06:50 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 404 and 467 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 161.4, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 2121 2321, Boulder K indices: 2121 2221). Region 9365 developed slowly and rotated out of view. Region 9366 was spotless most of the day. Region 9368 was mostly unchanged and could produce further M class flares, even major ones. Region 9370 developed slowly and could produce a minor M class flare. New region 9372 emerged quickly in the southwest quadrant at a high latitude, the region is already magnetically complex and could produce minor M class flares. New region 9373 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Oddly, SEC/NOAA failed to number an HSX region near the southeast limb and southwest of region 9373. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 2 M class events were recorded on March 9. Region 9368 produced an M1.5/1N flare at 01:57 UT and a C9.0/1N flare at 23:24 UT. Region 9365 generated a C2.4 at 04:37 UT. Region 9370 produced a C6.0 flare 08:47 UT. Region 9372 was the source of a C7.8 flare at 20:27 and a C2.4 flare at 21:19 UT. A long duration M1.0 event peaked at 10:28 UT, LASCO EIT images do not clearly indicated the source of the event, however, the only discernable activity at the time was in region 9368. Region 9368 produced an impulsive major M6.7/1B flare at 04:05 UT on March 10, a weak type II sweep was associated with the event. March 8: Region 9368 generated an impulsive major M5.7/1B flare at 11:18 UT. A moderate type II sweep was associated with the flare. A weak full halo CME was observed in LASCO images with most of the mass observed over the northwest limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 9-10. A CME could reach Earth sometime between late March 10 and noon on March 11 and cause unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9365 2001.02.28 1 S12W90 0030 HSX 9366 2001.03.02 2 S24W48 0010 CSO 9367 2001.03.02 N09W45 plage 9368 2001.03.02 21 N26W44 0370 EKI beta-gamma 9370 2001.03.03 20 N11W24 0200 EAO 9372 2001.03.09 6 S37W50 0070 CSO beta-gamma 9373 2001.03.09 3 S07E71 0050 CAO Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 peak 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 151.2 (1) 32.8 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]