Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 9, 2001 at 04:30 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 430 and 463 km/sec. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 167.2, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1023 1222, Boulder K indices: 0023 2322). Region 9365 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9366 was quiet and stable. Region 9368 developed slowly early in the day, then produced a major flare and has since then decayed significantly. Further M class flares are possible. Region 9370 developed slowly and could produce a minor M class flare. Region 9371 rotated off the visible disk and was mostly quiet. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C and 1 M class events were recorded on March 8. Region 9370 produced a C5.5 flare at 10:51 UT. Region 9368 generated an impulsive major M5.7/1B flare at 11:18 UT. A moderate type II sweep was associated with the flare. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO images with most of the mass observed over the northwest limb. Region 9368 was the source of an M1.5/1N flare at 01:57 UT on March 9. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 9-10. A CME could reach Earth sometime between late March 10 and noon on March 11 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9365 2001.02.28 2 S10W75 0020 HSX 9366 2001.03.02 4 S25W41 0010 BXO 9367 2001.03.02 N09W32 plage 9368 2001.03.02 21 N26W33 0610 EKI beta-gamma 9370 2001.03.03 13 N10W12 0160 DAO 9371 2001.03.04 8 N22W86 0270 DKI Total number of sunspots: 48 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) cycle 23 peak 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 149.9 (1) 29.2 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]