Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 8, 2001 at 05:10 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 446 and 521 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.6, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 1232 2321, Boulder K indices: 2322 3421). Region 9365 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet, the region could become spotless before rotating over the west limb on March 9-10. Region 9366 decayed further and could become spotless today. Region 9367 decayed and was spotless by early evening. Region 9368 developed slowly and has potential to produce a major flare. Region 9370 developed slowly and was mostly quiet, the potential for a minor M class flare is increasing. Region 9371 developed further while rotating off the visible disk, the region has major flare potential. Flares and CMEs A total of 10 C class events were recorded on March 7. Region 9365 produced a C4.6/1F flare at 00:16 UT. Region 9370 generated a C2.9 flare at 05:09 UT. Region 9371 was the source of a C2.7 flare at 08:41, a C2.0 flare at 09:49 and a C5.8 flare at 15:02 UT. Region 9368 produced a C7.3 flare at 19:27 UT. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 8-9. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9365 2001.02.28 3 S10W62 0010 CRO 9366 2001.03.02 4 S24W28 0030 CRO 9367 2001.03.02 1 N09W19 0000 AXX 9368 2001.03.02 18 N25W20 0580 EKI beta-gamma 9370 2001.03.03 10 N09E00 0160 DAO 9371 2001.03.04 6 N21W79 0450 DKI beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 42 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 147.4 (1) 26.0 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]