Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 7, 2001 at 05:30 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 475 and 581 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 157.8, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1122 2232, Boulder K indices: 1122 2311). Region 9365 was quiet and stable. Region 9366 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9367 was quiet and stable. Region 9368 developed slowly and began to produce C flares. C and minor M class flares are possible. Region 9369 was mostly quiet, the region has rotated over the west limb. Region 9370 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9371 developed further and will be slowly and could produce C and minor M class flares. The region will rotate off the visible disk late on March 8. Flares and CMEs A total of 15 C class events were recorded on March 6. Region 9368 produced a C1.7 flare at 09:13, a C2.6 flare at 12:32, a C2.1 flare at 13:05, a C2.1 flare at 17:13 and a C3.2 flare at 21:42 UT. The largest flare of the day was an optically unaccounted C6.7 flare at 10:13 UT. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 7-8. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9365 2001.02.28 2 S10W49 0020 HSX 9366 2001.03.02 9 S25W14 0060 DAO 9367 2001.03.02 1 N09W05 0010 HRX 9368 2001.03.02 23 N25W08 0420 EAI 9369 2001.03.03 4 N17W88 0060 DAO 9370 2001.03.03 11 N10E14 0060 DAO 9371 2001.03.04 11 N20W64 0330 DAO beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 61 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 142.6 (1) 22.7 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]