Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 5, 2001 at 05:10 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on March 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 407 and 491 km/sec. Early on March 5 the geomagnetic field has been at minor storm levels. The source of the increase in activity levels may have been a partial halo CME observed on March 1. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 141.0, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour K indices: 3343 3344, Boulder K indices: 3333 4333). Region 9359 was quiet and stable, the region has rotated out of view. Region 9364 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9365 decayed and was quiet. Region 9366 developed slowly during the first half of the day, slow decay has been observed since then. C flares are possible. Region 9367 was quiet and stable. Region 9368 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9369 developed further and was quiet. C class flares are possible. Region 9370 was spotless early in the day, a single spot emerged later on. New region 9371 emerged in the northwest quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were observed on March 4. Region 9366 produced a C1.2 flare at 18:49 UT. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on March 2-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on March 5-6. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9359 2001.02.20 3 N15W83 0030 AXX 9360 2001.02.21 S11W89 plage 9362 2001.02.25 S07W79 plage 9363 2001.02.27 S20W80 plage 9364 2001.02.28 5 S11W68 0050 DSO 9365 2001.02.28 5 S09W18 0010 CSO 9366 2001.03.02 23 S24E12 0090 DAI 9367 2001.03.02 1 N10E22 0010 HSX 9368 2001.03.02 16 N25E20 0150 DAI 9369 2001.03.03 7 N17W64 0110 DAO 9370 2001.03.03 1 N10E42 0000 AXX 9371 2001.03.04 6 N21W39 0010 CRO Total number of sunspots: 67 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 135.4 (1) 13.9 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]