Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 4, 2001 at 04:15 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 3, with a few stations reporting isolated periods of minor storming. Solar wind speed ranged between 425 and 518 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 10:38 UT and solar wind speed abruptly increased from 440 to 510 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 139.6, the planetary A index was 14 (3-hour K indices: 2314 4343, Boulder K indices: 2314 5431). Region 9359 was quiet and stable. Region 9360 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9364 reemerged with a few spots. Region 9365 developed slowly early in the day, then began to decay. Region 9366 developed slowly and has become more complex. C and perhaps minor M class flares are possible. Region 9367 was quiet and stable. Region 9368 developed slowly and was quiet. New region 9369 emerged fairly quickly in the northwest quadrant and could produce C flares. New region 9370 emerged in the southeast quadrant and is already spotless. Flares and CMEs No flaring of interest was observed on March 3, however, sub flare activity increased with region 9369 being the most active region. March 1: A filament eruption covering a fairly large area in the southern hemisphere (from the southeast quadrant, across the central meridian and into the southwest quadrant) was in progress by 18:24 UT as observed in LASCO EIT images. At least a partial halo CME was produced by this event and there is a fair chance the CME could reach Earth on March 4 or 5. The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on March 2-3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility of active intervals on March 4. A CME could arrive on March 4 or 5 and cause unsettled to active conditions. A coronal stream will start on March 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location region numbered sunspots at Area Classification Comment midnight 9359 2001.02.20 4 N12W70 0050 CSO 9360 2001.02.21 S11W76 plage 9362 2001.02.25 S07W66 plage 9363 2001.02.27 S20W67 plage 9364 2001.02.28 4 S10W51 0020 BXO 9365 2001.02.28 9 S08W04 0040 CAO 9366 2001.03.02 16 S25E25 0090 EAI beta-gamma 9367 2001.03.02 2 N10E36 0020 CSO 9368 2001.03.02 12 N26E35 0060 DAI 9369 2001.03.03 8 N18W49 0040 DAO 9370 2001.03.03 3 N09E51 0010 BXO now spotless Total number of sunspots: 58 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 133.6 (1) 8.8 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]