Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 3, 2001 at 01:40 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 1, 2001) - Cycle 23 sunspot maximum was in April 2000] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 1, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 406 and 467 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 129.7, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 1122 2333, Boulder K indices: 1122 3341). Region 9359 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9360 was quiet and stable, as was region 9365. New region 9366 emerged on March 1 and was numbered on March 2, the region may be capable of C class flaring. New region 9367 in the northeast quadrant was finally numbered. New region 9368 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs No flaring of interest was observed on March 2. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images from 11:42 UT. With several hours of frames missing from LASCO EIT images it's uncertain if the source of the CME was on the visible disk or on the backside of the sun. March 1: A filament eruption covering a fairly large area in the southern hemisphere (from the southeast quadrant, across the central meridian and into the southwest quadrant) was in progress by 18:24 UT as observed in LASCO EIT images. At least a partial halo CME was produced by this event and there is a fair chance the CME could reach Earth on March 4 or 5. February 28: A filament eruption originating in the southern hemisphere and near the center of the solar disk began at 13:25 UT. This event caused a full halo CME which will likely reach Earth on March 3. The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 2-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled early on March 3. Unsettled to active is likely later in the day when a CME impacts the magnetosphere, isolated minor storming is possible. Another CME could arrive on March 4 or 5 and cause unsettled to active conditions. A coronal stream will start late on March 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9359 2001.02.20 4 N11W61 0030 CRO 9360 2001.02.21 1 S11W63 0020 HRX 9362 2001.02.25 S07W53 plage 9363 2001.02.27 S20W54 plage 9364 2001.02.28 S10W43 plage 9365 2001.02.28 3 S08E09 0020 CSO 9366 2001.03.02 7 S23E38 0040 DRO 9367 2001.03.02 1 N12E48 0020 HRX 9368 2001.03.02 1 N27E48 0010 HSX Total number of sunspots: 17 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 118.6 (-1.2) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (115.4 predicted, -3.2) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (113.0 predicted, -2.4) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (111.0 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (108.5 predicted, -2.5) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (104.7 predicted, -3.8) 2001.02 146.6 80.1 (100.3 predicted, -4.4) 2001.03 130.6 (1) 4.4 (2) (96.8 predicted, -3.5) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]