:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Mar 07 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 February - 04 March 2001

Solar activity was very low to low. Isolated B- and C-class subflares
occurred. By and large, the visible sunspot groups were small and
simply structured with only minor changes evident. There were two
significant events during the period: a beyond-the-west-limb event
on 26 February associated with a >10 MeV proton flux enhancement,
and an 11-degree filament disappearance on 28 February associated
with a full-halo CME.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. Weak coronal hole effects
occurred on 26 and 28 February associated with minor increases in
velocities, densities, proton temps and IMF intensity. A CME passed
the spacecraft beginning at 03/1040 UTC. The CME source was likely
the full-halo CME event of 28 February mentioned above. The CME
passage was accompanied by abrupt increases in velocity, proton
temperatures, density, and IMF intensity. Sustained periods of
southward Bz followed the passage with maximum southerly deflections
to minus 12 nT (GSM).

No proton events were detected. However, a >10 MeV proton flux
enhancement began around 26/0900 UTC following an event from beyond
the west limb. The >10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels
on 27 February.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 02 March
with isolated active periods due to minor changes on the solar wind
flow. A geomagnetic disturbance began around 03/1100 UTC due to a
CME passage. Unsettled to minor storm levels occurred during this
disturbance. The disturbance subsided late on 04 March.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 March - 02 April 2001

Activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There will be a
fair chance for isolated M-class flares during the period.

No proton events are expected. However, chances for a proton event
may increase beginning 12 March with the return of active longitudes
near old Region 9354 (S09, L = 284, class/area Dao/280 on 24
February).

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the
period.

Active levels will be possible around April 1 due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during
the rest of the period, barring an Earth-directed CME.


.