:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Feb 20 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 February 2001

Solar activity was very low to low with isolated, optically
uncorrelated B- and C-class X-ray flares. Sunspot groups were
largely stable and unremarkable. A long-duration B8 X-ray flare
occurred at 15/1416 UTC associated with a partial-halo CME. The 10.7
cm solar radio flux dropped to 130 sfu during 16 - 18 February, the
lowest readings since May 2000.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. A coronal transient passed the
ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/0300 UTC, possibly associated
with a halo CME observed on 11 February. The passage was associated
with a velocity increase from 430 to 610 km/sec and a brief
southward turning of the Bz component of the IMF with maximum
deflections to minus 15 nT (GSM). A possible coronal hole signature
was observed during 14 - 15 February with elevated velocities (peaks
to 640 km/sec on 15 February) and proton temperatures, along with
low densities.

There were no proton events detected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
increased from normal to moderate levels beginning 14 February. The
flux briefly reached high levels during 15 - 18 February.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 12
February. Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels
during 13 - 14 February with isolated minor storm periods. Activity
decreased to mostly quiet levels during the rest of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 February - 19 March 2001

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels during most of the
period.

No proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal levels during most of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels, barring an Earth-directed CME.

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