Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update March 1, 2001 at 03:35 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update February 2, 2001) - Did cycle 23 peak in April 2000?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update February 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update February 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 607 km/sec, from approximately 09 UT under the influence of a fairly benign coronal stream (originating from a fingerlike extension of a large southern hemisphere coronal hole). Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 131.8, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 1012 3332, Boulder K indices: 1012 3232). Region 9358 was quiet and rotated off the visible disk. Region 9359 decayed significantly and was quiet. Region 9360 was quiet and stable. New region 9364 emerged in the southwest quadrant. New region 9365 emerged in the southeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs No flaring of interest was observed on February 28. A filament eruption in the southern hemisphere and near the center of the solar disk began at 13:25 UT. This event caused a full halo CME which will likely reach Earth on March 3. The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on March 2-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 1-2. Quiet to minor storm is likely on March 3 when a CME impacts the magnetosphere. A coronal stream will start on March 5 and cause unsettled to active conditions, perhaps with isolated minor storming. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9358 2001.02.18 1 S10W86 0020 HRX 9359 2001.02.20 20 N13W31 0110 DAI 9360 2001.02.21 1 S11W37 0020 HRX 9361 2001.02.22 S15W75 plage 9362 2001.02.25 S07W27 plage 9363 2001.02.27 S20W28 plage 9364 2001.02.28 9 S10W16 0010 BXO 9365 2001.02.28 7 S08E37 0020 CRO Total number of sunspots: 38 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.8 (+3.9) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.1) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8 (+1.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (119.5 predicted, -0.3) 2000.09 182.1 109.7 (117.9 predicted, -1.6) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (116.3 predicted, -1.6) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (114.4 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (111.8 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 166.6 95.7 (108.2 predicted, -3.6) 2001.02 146.6 131.0 (2) 2001.03 (1) (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]