:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Feb 06 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 January - 04 February 2001

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. 
Activity was low during 29 January - 02 February with isolated B-
and C-class subflares including a C7/Sf flare at 01/0712 UTC from
Region 9330 (S25, L = 112, class/area Eso/230 on 31 January).
Activity increased to moderate levels on 03 February with an
isolated M2/Sf flare at 03/0006 UTC from Region 9334 (N11, L = 075,
class/area Eai/220 on 04 February), which rotated into view on 01
February. This flare was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps
and a non-Earth-directed CME. Old Region 9306 (N12, L = 058)
returned on 30 January as a small D-type group, now numbered as
Region 9335 (N08, L = 064, class/area Dao/130 on 04 February).
Activity dropped to low levels on 04 February with isolated,
low-level C-class subflares, mostly from Regions 9330 and 9334. Both
regions were moderately sized, simply structured, and mildly active
as the period ended.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period.  A CME passage occurred during 31
January - 01 February. The CME shock front passed the spacecraft at
31/0742 UTC (followed by a sudden impulse at Earth at 31/0803 UTC)
accompanied by a velocity increase from 370 to 500 km/sec; increased
densities, briefly peaking at 22 p/cc; and a southward turning of
IMF Bz with maximum deflections to minus 14 nT (GSM). Solar wind
conditions were nominal during the remainder of the period.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at
28/2025 UTC, reached a peak of 48.9 pfu at 29/0655 UTC, and ended at
30/0035 UTC. The source for this event was an M1/1n flare at 28/1600
UTC from Region 9313 (S04, L = 272, class/area Cso/030 on 28
January). Region 9313 was decaying at the time of this flare and had
a relatively quiet west limb passage on 30 January. The greater than
100 MeV proton flux became enhanced with this event, but did not
reach event levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field was largely undisturbed during 29 - 30 January
with the exception of a period of active to minor storm levels
during 29/0000 - 0600 UTC. The field was disturbed on 31 January as
a CME, associated with an M1/1n flare at 28/1600 UTC, passed Earth.
The CME front passed the ACE spacecraft at 31/0742 UTC followed by a
sudden impulse at Earth at 31/0803 UTC (17 nT, as measured by the
Boulder USGS magnetometer). Activity increased to unsettled to
active levels during the rest of the day with minor to major storm
periods detected at high latitudes. Activity decreased to mostly
quiet levels during 01 - 04 February.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 February - 05 March 2001

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.

No proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels, barring an Earth-directed CME.


.