:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Jan 23 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 January 2001

Solar activity reached high levels during the period. Activity was
low during 15 - 18 January due to isolated to occasional C-class
flares. Activity increased to moderate levels on 19 January with an
isolated M1/Sf flare at 19/1730 UTC from Region 9313 (S07, L = 272,
class/area Eao/220 on 20 January). Activity increased to high levels
on 20 January as Region 9313 produced a M7/2b flare at 20/2120 UTC
with an associated 850 sfu Tenflare, Type II radio sweep, and a halo
CME. Region 9313 also produced a M1/2f parallel ribbon flare at
20/1847 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep and a halo CME.
Both flares occurred during a period of gradual growth in the
region. Activity declined to moderate levels on the last day of the
period with an isolated M1/Sf flare at 21/2313 UTC from Region 9313.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. There were no transient or high
speed stream signatures observed during the period. Relatively brief
solar sector boundary crossings occurred on 17, 20, and 21 January.
Periods of sustained southward IMF Bz were associated with the
boundary crossings of 20 - 21 January with maximum southerly
deflections to minus 13 nT (GSM).

There were no proton events detected at geosynchronous orbit.
However, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
became enhanced following the M7/2b flare on 20 January.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 15
- 20 January with a brief period of active levels early on 20
January. Activity increased to quiet to minor storm levels on 21
January with active to minor storm levels detected during the
21/0900 - 1200 UTC interval.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 January - 19 February 2001

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with isolated
M-class flares possible sometime during the period.

No proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly active levels
during 24 January with a fair chance for some isolated storm
periods. This activity is expected in response to the CME activity
observed on 20 January. Activity is expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels for the remainder of the period, barring another
Earth-directed CME.


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