:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2001 Jan 09 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 January 2001

Solar activity was at low levels during most of the period. However,
activity rose to moderate levels on 03 January by virtue of a
optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flare at 03/2355 UTC. This flare
likely came from a source beyond the northeast limb. Isolated to
occasional C-class subflares occurred during the rest of the period.
Region 9289 (S07, L = 201, class/area Eki/890 on 30 December) was
the most interesting spot group on the disk. It was large with a
minor degree of magnetic complexity and produced isolated C-class
subflares. It was crossing the west limb at the end of the period.
Region 9206 (N12, L = 054, class/area Dai/110 on 08 January)
produced a few subflares as it began to rotate into view late on 07
January. Aside from Region 9206, there were about a dozen small,
stable sunspot groups on the disk as the period ended.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. A weak high speed stream (HSS)
occurred during 02 - 06 January associated with a recurrent, but
declining, negative-polarity coronal hole. Wind velocities gradually
increased during January 02 - 04, peaking at about 450 km/sec.
Increases in total field intensity and proton densities accompanied
the onset of the HSS, along with a period of sustained southward IMF
Bz with maximum southerly deflections to minus 11 nT (GSM).

There were no proton events detected at geosynchronous orbit.
However, a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began late on
05 January, possibly related to a large back side halo CME, first
seen in the SOHO/LASCO images at 05/1706 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels during 03 -
04 January with some brief storm periods at high latitudes. Activity
was at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 January - 05 February 2001

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with isolated
M-class flares possible sometime during the period.

No proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels, barring an Earth-directed CME.


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