Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 30, 2001 at 05:20 UT. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 351 and 474 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 165.4, the planetary A index was 13 (3-hour K indices: 4431 1223, Boulder K indices: 5431 2222). Region 9313 decayed further and was quiet, the region has rotated out of view early on Jan.30. Region 9316 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region is spotless early on Jan.30. Region 9321 decayed slowly and was quiet. The region could produce a minor M class flare. Region 9322 decayed slowly and was spotle> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Transfer interrupted! y quiet and stable, C class flares are possible. Region 9326 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region is spotless early on Jan.30. Region 9327 was quiet and stable. Region 9328 decayed slowly and was quiet. New region 9329 emerged in the southeast quadrant. A new region is rotating into view at the northeast limb, it appears to be capable of at least C class flaring. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class events were recorded on January 29. Region 9329 produced a C1.8 flare at 04:28 and a C5.7 flare at 15:40 UT. A filament eruption was triggered to the north of the region and was observed in LASCO-EIT images from 15:48 UT. A partial halo CME could be seen in LASCO C3 images, this CME has a chance of reaching Earth on February 1 or 2. January 28: Region 9313 was the source of a long duration M1.5/1N event peaking at 16:00 UT. A wide full halo CME was observed and the CME will likely reach Earth sometime between late on January 30 and noon on January 31. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on January 30-31. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9313 2001.01.18 3 S04W79 0020 DRO 9315 2001.01.19 S28W87 plage 9316 2001.01.19 2 S15W58 0010 BXO 9321 2001.01.21 27 S03W37 0210 EAI 9322 2001.01.23 1 S22W80 0010 AXX 9323 2001.01.23 S29W73 plage 9324 2001.01.23 N10W37 plage 9325 2001.01.25 7 N09E10 0050 DAO 9326 2001.01.26 2 N26W68 0010 AXX 9327 2001.01.27 1 N14E18 0000 AXX 9328 2001.01.28 3 N05W73 0040 CSO 9329 2001.01.29 6 S10E50 0030 DSO Total number of sunspots: 52 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 167.3 (1) 134.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]