Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 22, 2001 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update January 18, 2001)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 301 and 377 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 151.5, the planetary A index was 18 (3-hour K indices: 2235 4334, Boulder K indices: 3235 3423). Region 9311 developed slowly and became more complex. C class flares are possible. Region 9313 was mostly quiet but could produce isolated M class flares. Region 9316 was quiet and stable, C class flaring is possible. Region 9318 was quiet and stable. New region 9319 emerged in the southwest quadrant. New region 9320 emerged in the southeast quadrant near the central meridian. New region 9321 rotated into view at the southeast limb, the region could produce C flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 21. Region 9313 generated a C3.0 flare at 19:28 UT. Region 9311 was the source of a C4.5 flare at 21:16 and an M1.1 flare at 23:12 UTC. A minor above 10 MeV proton flux enhancement was observed after the M flare. January 20: Region 9313 produced an M1.2/2F flare at 18:47 UT. The flare was accompanied by a strong type II sweep and a full halo coronal mass ejection. A major M7.7/2B flare was observed at 21:20 UT. This flare was accompanied by a moderate type II sweep and a large and fast coronal mass ejection. Although the main core of the CMEs will not be heading towards Earth, parts of the CMEs will begin to influence the geomagnetic field sometime between late on January 22 and late on January 23. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 22. A CME based disturbance should start sometime late on January 22 or on January 23 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9310 2001.01.14 N27W41 plage 9311 2001.01.15 6 N05W36 0050 CSO beta-gamma 9312 2001.01.16 N06W06 plage 9313 2001.01.18 11 S07E28 0160 DAO beta-gamma-delta 9314 2001.01.18 N17W84 plage 9315 2001.01.19 S28E18 plage 9316 2001.01.19 4 S16E50 0130 DAO 9318 2001.01.20 6 S04W09 0010 BXO 9319 2001.01.21 5 S20W43 0030 CSO 9320 2001.01.21 3 S25E01 0020 CSO 9321 2001.01.21 3 S05E69 0010 DAO Total number of sunspots: 38 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 167.5 (1) 95.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]