Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 16, 2001 at 05:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 337 and 383 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 169.2, the planetary A index was 7 (3-hour K indices: 0023 3223, Boulder K indices: 0023 3213). Regions 9301, 9302 and 9304 were quiet and in slow decay. Region 9306 decayed slowly and produced several C flares. M class flares are possible. Region 9308 was mostly quiet and stable. Regions 9309 and 9310 decayed slowly and were quiet. New region 9311 emerged at a low latitude near the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on January 15. Region 9306 produced a C1.9 flare at 01:08, a C1.2 flare at 09:04, a C9.4 flare at 16:03 and a C4.9 flare at 18:47 UT. January 14: A huge filament in the northern hemisphere stretching from near the central meridian, across the northwest quadrant to behind the northwest limb erupted. The eruption started at 06:24 UT and resulted in a large partial halo coronal mass ejection above the northeast limb (partially), the north pole and the northwest limb. There is a small chance of a minor terrestrial CME impact on January 17. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 16-17 with a chance of active intervals on Jan.17 should the CME described above reach Earth. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9300 2001.01.04 S13W85 plage 9301 2001.01.04 2 N08W73 0000 AXX 9302 2001.01.05 2 N19W69 0000 BXO 9304 2001.01.07 1 N12W56 0000 AXX 9305 2001.01.07 S06W43 plage 9306 2001.01.08 43 N12W38 0460 FAI beta-gamma 9308 2001.01.10 19 N15W17 0190 DAO 9309 2001.01.11 2 N10W64 0000 AXX 9310 2001.01.14 1 N26E37 0020 HRX 9311 2001.01.15 4 N04E53 0050 CAO Total number of sunspots: 74 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 172.9 (1) 76.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]