Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 15, 2001 at 05:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 355 and 398 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.3, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 1222 2332, Boulder K indices: 2223 2221). Regions 9295 and 9296 were quiet and stable, both regions are rotating off the visible disk. Regions 9301, 9302 and 9304 were quiet and stable. Region 9306 developed quickly late on Jan.13 and early on Jan.14. Since then the region has been decaying and lost quiet a few spots. A major flare is still possible. Region 9308 developed slowly and was mostly quiet, minor M class flares are possible. Region 9309 decayed slowly and was quiet. New region 9310 emerged near the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on January 14. Region 9306 produced a C8.1 flare at 02:51 and a C1.7 flare at 15:57 UT. A huge filament in the northern hemisphere stretching from near the central meridian, across the northwest quadrant to behind the northwest limb erupted. The eruption started at 06:24 UT and resulted in a large partial halo coronal mass ejection above the northeast quadrant (partially), the north pole and the northwest limb. There is a small chance of a minor terrestrial CME impact on January 17. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 15-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9295 2001.01.02 1 S13W84 0000 AXX 9296 2001.01.02 2 N08W84 0030 DSO 9300 2001.01.04 S13W72 plage 9301 2001.01.04 4 N08W58 0020 CSO 9302 2001.01.05 4 N19W54 0030 CSO 9304 2001.01.07 1 N11W44 0030 HSX 9305 2001.01.07 S06W30 plage 9306 2001.01.08 60 N12W25 0510 FAC beta-gamma 9308 2001.01.10 14 N15W01 0200 DAO beta-gamma 9309 2001.01.11 3 N09W51 0040 CSO 9310 2001.01.14 2 N26E52 0030 CSO Total number of sunspots: 91 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.2 (1) 71.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]