Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 14, 2001 at 01:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 332 and 457 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 01:40 UT Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 350 to 450 km/sec. Only a small increase in geomagnetic activity was noted. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 184.3, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1012 3221, Boulder K indices: 1112 3211). Regions 9295, 9296, 9301 and 9302 were mostly quiet and stable. Region 9304 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9306 developed at a moderate pace. A weak magnetic delta configuration was observed in magnetograms and the region has some potential to produce a major flare. Region 9308 was mostly quiet and stable. Region 9309 decayed slowly and was quiet. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 13. Region 9302 produced a C1.2 flare at 13:56 and a C2.3 flare at 16:57 UT. Region 9306 generated a C3.4 flare at 19:46 UT. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 13 with a chance of occasionally atvie conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9294 2001.01.01 N22W88 plage 9295 2001.01.02 1 S12W72 0020 HSX 9296 2001.01.02 2 N09W72 0050 HSX 9299 2001.01.04 N10W81 plage 9300 2001.01.04 S13W59 plage 9301 2001.01.04 4 N08W45 0040 CSO 9302 2001.01.05 3 N19W41 0060 CAO 9304 2001.01.07 1 N11W30 0030 HSX 9305 2001.01.07 S06W17 plage 9306 2001.01.08 42 N13W13 0420 FAI beta-gamma-delta 9308 2001.01.10 11 N16E11 0180 DAO 9309 2001.01.11 2 N10W39 0060 DSO Total number of sunspots: 66 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.0 (1) 65.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]