Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 12, 2001 at 03:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 404 and 482 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 165.9, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1001 2231, Boulder K indices: 1111 2211). Region 9294 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on January 12. Region 9295 was quiet and stable. Region 9296 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9301 was quiet and stable, as was region 9302. Region 9304 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9305 reemerged with a couple of spots. Region 9306 developed slowly. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9308 developed slowly and could produce further C class flares. New region 9309 was split off from region 9302 and developed at a moderate pace. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on January 11. Region 9308 produced a c1.2 flare at 02:15 UTC. January 10: Region 9306 was the source of a long duration C5.9/1N event peaking at 01:03 UT. A moderate type II and a weak type IV radio sweep was recorded as well. A full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C2 images. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet to unsettled on January 12. Late in the day or early on January 13 a CME is likely to arrive and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9294 2001.01.01 1 N22W62 0000 AXX 9295 2001.01.02 1 S12W47 0010 HSX 9296 2001.01.02 5 N08W45 0090 HAX 9299 2001.01.04 N10W55 plage 9300 2001.01.04 S13W33 plage 9301 2001.01.04 1 N08W20 0030 HSX 9302 2001.01.05 7 N18W15 0070 CAO 9304 2001.01.07 3 N12W01 0030 HAX 9305 2001.01.07 2 S07E10 0010 AXX 9306 2001.01.08 34 N12E14 0220 EAI beta-gamma 9307 2001.01.09 S13W85 plage 9308 2001.01.10 9 N14E39 0060 DSO 9309 2001.01.11 10 N10W14 0070 DAO Total number of sunspots: 73 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 171.5 (1) 54.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]