Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 10, 2001 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 376 and 431 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 166.3, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1112 2221, Boulder K indices: 2012 2211). Region 9294 was quiet and stable, as was region 9295. Region 9296 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9297 was quiet and stable, the region has rotated off the visible disk. Region 9300 decayed into spotless plage. Regions 9301 and 9302 were quiet and stable. Region 9303 was quiet and has rotated off the visible disk. Region 9304 was quiet and stable. Region 9306, although fairly small, has a magnetic delta configuration near its center and will likely continue to produce flares. Further minor M class flares are possible. New region 9307 emerged in the southwest quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 9, none of the C flares were optically correlated. Region 9306 produced the impulsive M1.8/1N flare at 06:50 UTC. Region 9306 was the source of a long duration C5.9/1N event peaking at 01:03 UTC on January 10. A moderate type II and a weak type IV radio sweep was recorded as well. A fast coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C2 images. Although most of the ejected material was seen off the east limb, early indications are that this was a full halo CME. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 10 and 11. The CME described above will likely arrive on January 12 or early on the 13. Unsettled to minor storm, possible with major storm intervals, is likely after the CME impacts the Earth's magnetosphere. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9292 2000.12.30 N24W68 plage 9293 2001.01.01 N11W65 plage 9294 2001.01.01 5 N23W33 0010 CSO 9295 2001.01.02 4 S13W21 0030 CSO 9296 2001.01.02 3 N08W18 0170 HAX 9297 2001.01.04 1 N22W86 0030 HSX 9299 2001.01.04 N10W29 plage 9300 2001.01.04 S13W07 plage 9301 2001.01.04 1 N07E06 0010 HSX 9302 2001.01.05 2 N18E12 0090 CSO 9303 2001.01.06 1 S04W90 0060 HSX 9304 2001.01.07 6 N11E29 0050 DAO 9305 2001.01.07 S07E37 plage 9306 2001.01.08 15 N11E43 0090 DAI beta-gamma-delta 9307 2001.01.09 2 S13W59 0020 HSX Total number of sunspots: 40 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.0 (1) 44.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]