Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 9, 2001 at 04:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 377 and 428 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 167.1, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2211 2233, Boulder K indices: 2211 2233). Region 9289 rotated off the visible disk. Region 9294 was quiet and stable, as was region 9295. Region 9296 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9297 was quiet and stable, the region will be rotating off the visible disk on January 10. Regions 9300, 9301 and 9302 were quiet and stable. Region 9303 was quiet and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9304 was quiet and stable. Region 9305 decayed and was quiet, the region is spotless early on January 9. New region 9306 was split off from region 9304, region 9306 appears to be developing slowly and could become capable of producing minor M class flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 8, none of the flares were optically correlated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 9-11. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9289 2000.12.26 2 S07W96 0090 DSO 9292 2000.12.30 N24W55 plage 9293 2001.01.01 N11W52 plage 9294 2001.01.01 4 N23W20 0020 CSO 9295 2001.01.02 2 S13W08 0040 HAX 9296 2001.01.02 4 N08W06 0150 HAX 9297 2001.01.04 1 N24W71 0070 HSX 9299 2001.01.04 N10W16 plage 9300 2001.01.04 4 S13E06 0010 BXO 9301 2001.01.04 2 N08E22 0020 CSO 9302 2001.01.05 3 N18E25 0070 DSO 9303 2001.01.06 5 S04W75 0160 DAO 9304 2001.01.07 7 N12E44 0040 DSO 9305 2001.01.07 1 S07E50 0000 AXX 9306 2001.01.08 12 N12E58 0110 DAI beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 47 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.9 (1) 40.3 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]