Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 8, 2001 at 04:30 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 339 and 407 km/sec, increasing slowly from 07h UTC towards the end of the day, probably influenced by a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.7, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 2211 1222, Boulder K indices: 2221 1222). Region 9289 was quiet and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9291 was quiet and stable and has rotated off the visible disk. Regions 9292 and 9293 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9294 was quiet and stable, the region could become spotless within 1-2 days. Region 9295 decayed and was quiet. Region 9296 was quiet and stable, as was region 9297. Region 9299 reemerged with a couple of spots, the region appears to be spotless again early on January 8. Regions 9300, 9301 and 9302 were mostly quiet and stable. Region 9303 developed slowly and could produce C flares before rotating off the visible disk on January 10. New region 9304 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9305 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on January 7, none of the flares were optically correlated. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 8-10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9289 2000.12.26 4 S06W83 0240 DAO 9291 2000.12.29 1 S12W91 0030 HSX 9292 2000.12.30 N24W42 plage 9293 2001.01.01 N11W39 plage 9294 2001.01.01 1 N22W10 0020 HSX 9295 2001.01.02 2 S13E05 0050 CSO 9296 2001.01.02 1 N08E08 0130 HSX 9297 2001.01.04 11 N23W55 0080 DSO 9298 2001.01.04 S22W43 plage 9299 2001.01.04 2 N10W03 0010 BXO 9300 2001.01.04 6 S14E18 0020 CRO 9301 2001.01.04 4 N08E34 0040 DSO 9302 2001.01.05 5 N20E39 0080 CSO 9303 2001.01.06 7 S04W62 0090 DAO 9304 2001.01.07 7 N11E58 0080 FSO 9305 2001.01.07 2 S07E64 0020 CRO Total number of sunspots: 53 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 174.9 (1) 34.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]