Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 6, 2001 at 06:00 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 370 and 450 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.3, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1111 1323, Boulder K indices: 1120 1222). Region 9289 was quiet and decayed slowly. Regions 9291 and 9292 were quiet and stable. Region 9293 decayed slowly and was quiet, no spots are visible early on January 6. Region 9294 decayed slowly and was quiet. Regions 9295 and 9296 developed slowly and were quiet. Region 9297 developed slowly and could produce C class flares. Region 9298 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9299 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on January 6. Region 9300 was quiet and stable, as was region 9301. Region 9302 rotated into view at the northeast limb. While the region is not large, magnetograms indicate some degree of complexity within the region. Minor M class flares are possible. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on January 5. Region 9302 produced a C3.2 flare at 07:15 and a long duration C6.8 event peaking at 18:51 UTC. A region behind the southwest limb was the source of a bright full halo CME observed in LASCO C2 images starting at 17:06 UTC. An enhancement in the above 10 MeV proton levels was observed during the evening and early on January 6. Its source may have been the same as the full halo CME or from the long duration C6 event in region 9302. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on January 4-5. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 6. Late on January 6 or early on January 7 geomagnetic activity could increase to unsettled to active levels as another coronal stream arrives. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9287 2000.12.25 S16W87 plage 9289 2000.12.26 15 S07W52 0440 EKI beta-gamma 9290 2000.12.27 N28W85 plage 9291 2000.12.29 1 S13W63 0070 HSX 9292 2000.12.30 1 N24W18 0040 HSX 9293 2001.01.01 1 N14W18 0000 AXX 9294 2001.01.01 2 N22E18 0030 CSO 9295 2001.01.02 3 S14E30 0080 CAO 9296 2001.01.02 1 N08E34 0150 HAX 9297 2001.01.04 6 N23W28 0080 DAO 9298 2001.01.04 S22W17 plage 9299 2001.01.04 1 N09E26 0000 AXX 9300 2001.01.04 1 S13E44 0000 AXX 9301 2001.01.04 1 N07E61 0040 HSX 9302 2001.01.05 5 N19E66 0110 CSO beta-gamma Total number of sunspots: 38 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.6 (1) 23.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]