Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 5, 2001 at 05:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 371 and 442 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 174.6, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2132 3332, Boulder K indices: 2132 2432). Region 9289 was mostly quiet and decayed slowly. Region 9290 decayed slowly and is spotless early on January 5. Region 9291 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9292 reemerged with several spots. Region 9293 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9294 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9295 and 9296. New region 9297 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 9298 emerged in the southwest quadrant, the region is spotless early on January 5. New region 9299 emerged in the northeast quadrant and could soon become spotless. New region 9300 emerged in the southeast quadrant and is spotless early on January 5. New region 9301 rotated into view at the northeast limb. An active and interesting region has begun to rotate into view at the northeast limb, the region could be capable of producing major flares as well as proton flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class events were recorded on January 4. Region 9301 produced a C2.5 flare at 19:14 UTC. Region 9289 generated a C3.6 flare at 20:08 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on January 4-5. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 5. Late on January 6 or early on January 7 geomagnetic activity could increase to unsettled to active levels as another coronal stream arrives. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9285 2000.12.24 N07W84 plage 9287 2000.12.25 S16W74 plage 9289 2000.12.26 19 S07W38 0530 EKO 9290 2000.12.27 1 N28W72 0000 AXX 9291 2000.12.29 1 S12W50 0050 HSX 9292 2000.12.30 6 N25W04 0030 CRO 9293 2001.01.01 4 N14W03 0020 CSO 9294 2001.01.01 5 N23E31 0040 CSO 9295 2001.01.02 1 S13E45 0080 HSX 9296 2001.01.02 1 N08E47 0070 HSX 9297 2001.01.04 4 N24W16 0030 CSO 9298 2001.01.04 2 S22W04 0010 AXX 9299 2001.01.04 2 N09E39 0010 AXX 9300 2001.01.04 2 S14E55 0010 AXX 9301 2001.01.04 2 N07E73 0020 AXX Total number of sunspots: 50 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 172.9 (1) 18.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]