Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 4, 2001 at 04:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 320 and 393 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 169.9, the planetary A index was 11 (3-hour K indices: 2423 3222, Boulder K indices: 3334 2112). Region 9283 rotated off the visible disk early today. Region 9289 was mostly quiet and decayed slowly. Region 9290 decayed slowly and could become spotless today or tomorrow. Region 9291 was quiet and stable, as was region 9293. Region 9294 developed slowly and may be capable of producing further C class flares. Regions 9295 and 9296 were quiet and stable. A very active region which has produced several long duration event over the past couple of days is about to rotate into view at the northeast limb. The region could be capable of producing major flares as well as proton flares. Flares and CMEs A total of 9 C and 1 M class events were recorded on January 3. Region 9289 produced a C1.4 flare at 09:32. Region 9290 generated a C2.7 flare at 18:08 UTC while region 9294 managed a C1.9 flare at 19:21 UTC. The region currently at and just behind the northeast limb produced a long duration C4.4 event peaking at 06:31 and a long duration M1.0 event peaking at 23:55 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on January 4-5. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 4-5. Late on January 6 geomagnetic activity could increase to unsettled to active levels as another coronal stream arrives. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9283 2000.12.22 1 S11W82 0010 HSX 9285 2000.12.24 N07W71 plage 9287 2000.12.25 S16W61 plage 9288 2000.12.26 S21W78 plage 9289 2000.12.26 23 S07W25 0590 EKO 9290 2000.12.27 1 N29W60 0010 HSX 9291 2000.12.29 7 S12W34 0080 DSO 9292 2000.12.30 N24E08 plage 9293 2001.01.01 7 N13E13 0030 DAO 9294 2001.01.01 3 N22E43 0050 CSO 9295 2001.01.02 2 S14E60 0060 CSO 9296 2001.01.02 4 N08E59 0100 CSO Total number of sunspots: 48 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 172.3 (1) 12.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]