Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 3, 2001 at 05:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 286 and 338 km/sec, a slow and gradual increase in speed was observed from just after noon. The interplanetary magnetic field swung moderately southwards towards the end of the day as a coronal stream began to influence the geomagnetic field. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 176.1, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 1000 2222, Boulder K indices: 1000 0112). Region 9283 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region is rotating over the west limb. Region 9289 was quiet, the region is decaying but could still produce energetic flares. Regions 9290 and 9291 were quiet and in slow decay. Region 9293 was quiet and stable, as was region 9294. New region 9295 rotated into view at the southeast limb. New region 9296 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on January 2. Either region 9296 or a region just behind it at the northeast limb produced 2 long duration events, first a C7.5 event peaking at 08:11 and then a C6.9 event peaking at 18:07 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole (mainly) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on January 1-3. A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on January 3-4. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on January 3 and quiet to unsettled on January 4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9282 2000.12.21 N21W87 plage 9283 2000.12.22 6 S12W71 0060 DAO 9285 2000.12.24 N07W58 plage 9287 2000.12.25 S16W48 plage 9288 2000.12.26 S21W65 plage 9289 2000.12.26 37 S07W10 0690 EKI 9290 2000.12.27 1 N28W48 0020 HSX 9291 2000.12.29 11 S12W21 0080 CAO 9292 2000.12.30 N24E21 plage 9293 2001.01.01 5 N13E26 0040 DSO 9294 2001.01.01 1 N22E55 0030 HSX 9295 2001.01.02 1 S12E73 0070 HSX 9296 2001.01.02 1 N10E76 0070 HAX Total number of sunspots: 63 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 173.6 (1) 8.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]