Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update January 2, 2001 at 03:55 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2001) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2001)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 279 and 312 km/sec. The average speed dropped below 300 km/sec, which is unusual, even during solar minimum. Solar wind density increased slowly all day. Normally this indicates the approach of a disturbance, and is perhaps an indication that a coronal stream will reach Earth sooner than expected. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 171.0, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour K indices: 0011 1011, Boulder K indices: 0022 0110). Regions 9282 and 9285 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9283 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Region 9289 lost some of its spots but was otherwise mostly quiet and stable. Isolated M class flares are still possible. Region 9290 was quiet and stable, as was region 9291. Region 9292 decayed into spotless plage. New region 9293 emerged in the northeast quadrant. New region 9294 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 7 C class events were recorded on January 1. Region 9289 produced a C1.2 flare at 07:35 UTC. Region 9283 generated a C1.0 flare at 09:51 and a C1.4 flare at 16:45 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole (mainly) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on January 1-2. A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on January 3-4 Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 2. Should a coronal stream arrive today, unsettled to minor storm conditions will be likely. Unsettled to minor storm is expected on January 3 with quiet to unsettled likely on January 4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9282 2000.12.21 N21W74 plage 9283 2000.12.22 6 S10W57 0060 DSO 9285 2000.12.24 N07W45 plage 9287 2000.12.25 S16W35 plage 9288 2000.12.26 S21W52 plage 9289 2000.12.26 35 S06E03 0890 EKI beta-gamma 9290 2000.12.27 4 N29W31 0040 DAO 9291 2000.12.29 9 S12W06 0120 DSO 9292 2000.12.30 N24E34 plage 9293 2001.01.01 4 N13E41 0040 CAO 9294 2001.01.01 1 N22E69 0040 HSX Total number of sunspots: 59 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 cycle 23 peak candidate 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 118.7 (-0.3) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (120.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.8 predicted, +0.5) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.9 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.7 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.8 predicted, -1.9) 2000.12 173.6 104.5 (114.2 predicted, -2.6) 2001.01 171.0 (1) 3.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]