Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 5, 2000 at 04:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2000) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 317 and 402 km/sec. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 152.0, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 2333 2232, Boulder K indices: 2333 2212). Region 9240 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9242 did not change much and could produce C flares, the region will rotate off the visible disk on December 6. Region 9243 was quiet and stable, as was region 9245. Region 9246 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9248 decayed and was quiet. Regions 9251, 9252 and 9253 all decayed into spotless plage. Region 9254 has developed slowly since late on Dec.4. Region 9255 was quiet and stable. New region 9256 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs No flaring of significance occurred on December 4. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 6-9 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions on December 9-12. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 5-7. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9240 20001122 1 N09W85 0130 HSX 9242 20001124 7 N19W68 0200 DSO 9243 20001127 1 S08W70 0010 HRX 9245 20001128 1 N05W11 0010 HSX 9246 20001128 12 S12W35 0090 DSO 9247 20001129 N14W46 plage 9248 20001130 1 N06W67 0010 HRX 9249 20001130 N12W09 plage 9251 20001203 S22W47 plage 9252 20001203 S02W49 plage 9253 20001203 S14W02 plage 9254 20001203 3 N09E48 0010 BXO 9255 20001203 1 N22E54 0020 HRX 9256 20001204 3 S16E65 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 30 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (118.3 predicted, -0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (119.8 predicted, +1.5) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.5 predicted, +0.7) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.6 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.4 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.4 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 166.8 (1) 19.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]