Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 3, 2000 at 05:35 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2000) - Has cycle 23 peaked?] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 344 and 395 km/sec. A weak solar wind shock was observed at 03:20 UTC on December 3, this CME was probably related to the filament eruption observed near region 9247 on November 30. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 380 to 420 km/sec and the interplanetary magnetic field has swung moderately southwards. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 167.0, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 1012 2222, Boulder K indices: 0012 2211). Region 9239 decayed and was quiet. Region 9240 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9242 did not change much and could produce C flares, a minor M class flare is a possibility. Region 9243 was quiet and stable. Region 9245 was quiet and stable. Region 9246 decayed and was mostly quiet. Region 9247 reemerged with a single spot, the region is spotless again early on December 3. Regions 9248 and 9249 were quiet and stable, region 9249 is spotless early on Dec.3. A couple of regions in the southwest quadrant have emerged slowly over the last several hours. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on December 2. Region 9246 produced a C1.0 flare at 00:19 UTC. December 1: A filament near region 9243 erupted during the day. In the absence of LASCO images it is difficult to know if a geoeffective CME was produced. A CME could reach Earth on December 4. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 6-9 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions on December 9-12.. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 3 with a possibility of isolated minor storm intervals. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9239 20001121 4 S21W67 0050 DSO 9240 20001122 1 N10W60 0130 HSX 9242 20001124 12 N21W41 0180 DSO 9243 20001127 8 S11W40 0030 DSO 9245 20001128 1 N04E14 0020 HSX 9246 20001128 19 S12W08 0150 ESI 9247 20001129 1 N14W20 0000 AXX 9248 20001130 3 N05W42 0000 BXO 9249 20001130 2 N12E17 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 51 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 111.0 (+3.2) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.1 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.9 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.7 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.9 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 121.6 119.0 (-1.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (118.3 predicted, -0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (119.8 predicted, +1.5) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (120.5 predicted, +0.7) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (119.6 predicted, -0.9) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (118.4 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 106.5 (116.4 predicted, -2.0) 2000.12 175.8 (1) 9.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]