Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 2, 2000 at 04:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 383 and 482 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 184.5, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 2202 2322, Boulder K indices: 1202 2210). Region 9239 developed a few new spots and remained quiet. Region 9240 decayed further and was mostly quiet. Region 9242 did not change much and could produce C flares, a minor M class flare is a possibility. Region 9243 decayed and was quiet. Region 9244 decayed and was quiet, the region is rotating over the west limb. Region 9245 was quiet and stable. Region 9246 decayed fairly quickly towards the end of the day and early on Dec.2. C class flares are still possible. Regions 9248 and 9249 were quiet and stable, both could become spotless today. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C class events were recorded on December 1. Region 9240 produced a C2.3 flare at 00:43. Region 9246 generated a C3.1 flare at 02:09 and a C1.3 flare at 03:13 while region 9242 managed a C3.1 flare at 09:05 UTC. A filament near region 9243 erupted during the day. In the absence of LASCO images it is difficult to know if a geoeffective CME was produced. November 30: Region 9247 was at the center of a long duration C3.6 event which peaked at 02:48 UTC. A filament eruption was observed from region 9247 until near the central meridian. A geoeffective CME may have been produced, but with no new LASCO images available until December 2, it is difficult to tell for certain if another CME is heading our way. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 2. A possibly geoeffective CME could impact Earth on December 2 or 3 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9239 20001121 8 S20W53 0090 DAO 9240 20001122 11 N09W43 0130 DSO 9242 20001124 11 N21W28 0170 DSO 9243 20001127 7 S10W27 0030 DSO 9244 20001127 1 N16W81 0070 HSX 9245 20001128 1 N04E26 0020 HSX 9246 20001128 25 S12E04 0190 EAI beta-gamma 9247 20001129 N13W06 plage 9248 20001130 2 N04W28 0000 AXX 9249 20001130 1 N11E31 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 67 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 149.9 (2) 2000.12 184.5 (1) 3.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]