:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Nov 21 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 November 2000

Solar activity reached moderate levels twice during the period.  The
week began with activity at low levels due to isolated C-class
subflares.  Activity increased to moderate levels on 14 November due
to an optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flare at 14/1634 UTC.  Region
9231 (S23, L = 056, class/area Dao/140 on 14 November) produced a
C7/2n flare at 14/0806 UTC.  A Type IV radio sweep is believed to
have been associated with the C7.  A Type II radio sweep occurred at
14/0902 UTC.   Activity decreased to low levels during 15 - 17
November due to isolated to occasional C-class subflares.  An
impressive full-halo CME occurred early on 16 November but was
judged to be from a source on the far side of the Sun.  A C8 X-ray
flare occurred at 16/0400 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep
and a CME determined to be not Earth-directed.  Activity reached
moderate levels once again on 18 November due to an M1/1f flare at
18/1325 UTC from Region 9235 (N14, L = 025, class/area Dso/140 on 18
November).  A Type II radio sweep and a CME (not Earth-directed) was
associated with this event.  Region 9231 (S24, L = 057, class/area
Fai/330 on 18 November) produced an M1/Sf flare at 18/1100 UTC. 
Activity decreased to low levels on 19 November due to occasional
C-class subflares.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period.  No CME passages were noted
during the interval.  A weak positive polarity coronal hole
signature was evident with peak velocities of 380 Km/s noted on 19
November.  Peak wind velocities of 770 Km/s occurred on 13 November,
then gradually declined during most of the period.  IMF Bz
fluctuated between plus 6 to minus 8 nT (GSM) from 13 - 19 November.

On 13 November the greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
08/2350 UTC ended at 13/0745 UTC.  This event reached a max flux of
14,800 pfu (corrected) on 09/1555 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels from 13 - 18 November.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during 13 -19
November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 November - 18 December 2000

Solar activity is expected to increase to moderate levels.  Activity
may reach high levels beginning around 23 November with the return
of previously active heliographic longitudes.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach moderate to high levels during 10 - 11 December. Otherwise,
normal to moderate fluxes are expected.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during most of the period, barring an Earth-directed CME.
However, active to minor storm periods will be possible during 08 -
10 December due to coronal hole effects.


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