Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update December 1, 2000 at 05:40 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 431 and 512 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 192.3, the planetary A index was 6 (3-hour K indices: 1122 2322, Boulder K indices: 1112 2221). Region 9236 rotated off the visible disk. Region 9239 was quiet and stable. Region 9240 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9242 developed slowly and could produce C flares, a minor M class flare is a possibility. Region 9243 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9244 developed slowly and was mostly quiet, the region will rotate over the west limb on December 2. Region 9245 was quiet and stable. Region 9246 developed further and is becoming more complex. C and minor M class flares are possible. Region 9247 decayed into spotless plage. New region 9248 emerged in the northwest quadrant. New region 9249 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C and 2 M class events were recorded on November 30. Region 9247 was at the center of a long duration C3.6 event which peaked at 02:48 UTC. A filament eruption was observed from region 9247 until near the central meridian. A geoeffective CME may have been produced, but with no new LASCO images available until December 2, it is difficult to tell for certain if another CME is heading our way. An optically unaccounted M1.0 flare was recorded at 09:25 UTC. Region 9246 generated an M1.3 flare at 20:38 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on December 6-7. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 1. A possibly geoeffective CME could impact Earth on December 2 or 3 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9236 20001118 1 N20W89 0150 HAX 9239 20001121 4 S21W41 0100 HAX 9240 20001122 17 N09W31 0230 DSO 9242 20001124 11 N21W15 0200 DSO 9243 20001127 16 S11W12 0060 DAO 9244 20001127 12 N15W70 0120 DAO 9245 20001128 1 N04E40 0030 HSX 9246 20001128 24 S12E19 0220 EAI beta-gamma-delta 9247 20001129 N13E07 plage 9248 20001130 3 N04W17 0010 AXX 9249 20001130 2 N11E45 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 91 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.8 (1) 149.9 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]