Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 30, 2000 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to severe storm on November 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 462 and 607 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 188.4, the planetary A index was 52 (3-hour K indices: 5765 6423, Boulder K indices: 5754 5332). Region 9236 decayed further and was quiet, the region is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9239 was quiet and stable. Region 9240 was mostly unchanged and quiet, the region could produce a major flare. Region 9242 did not change significantly and is likely to produce C flares, a minor M class flare is a possibility. Region 9243 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Region 9244 decayed and was quiet. Region 9245 was quiet and stable. Region 9246 developed slowly and has a weak magnetic delta configuration. C and minor M class flares are possible. New region 9247 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 11 C class events were recorded on November 29. Region 9242 produced a C2.0 flare at 00:59 and a C1.8 flare at 08:26 UTC. Region 9246 generated a C2.2 flare at 03:25, a C1.5 flare at 05:45, a C9.1 flare at 06:29 (a weak type II sweep was observed and there may have been a CME as well. SOHO experienced problems just after midnight and was unable to deliver images until after 16h UTC), a C2.2 flare at 08:53, a C6.4 flare at 12:12, a C1.7 flare at 15:05, a C2.3 flare at 19:11 and a C1.5 flare at 22:03 UTC. A large filament eruption occurred in the southwest quadrant early in the day. Although this likely resulted in a significant CME, the lack of LASCO images at the time of the event makes it impossible to say for certain if the CME was geoeffective. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 30 and December 1. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9236 20001118 4 N19W79 0400 HKX 9239 20001121 1 S21W28 0120 HSX 9240 20001122 24 N09W17 0300 DAO 9242 20001124 9 N20W02 0160 DAO beta-gamma 9243 20001127 7 S11E01 0050 DAO 9244 20001127 8 N15W56 0110 CAO 9245 20001128 1 N04E53 0040 HSX 9246 20001128 15 S12E33 0120 DSO beta-gamma-delta 9247 20001129 1 N13E20 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 70 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.3 (1) 143.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]