Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 29, 2000 at 04:25 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on November 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 482 and 608 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at 05h UTC at ACE, afterwards the interplanetary magnetic field was moderately southwards for most of the day. Solar flare activity was very low. Solar flux was 195.5, the planetary A index was 37 (3-hour K indices: 3365 6444, Boulder K indices: 2355 5233). Region 9236 is decaying fairly quickly. The region could produce another major flare before rotating off the visible disk on late on November 30. Region 9239 was quiet and stable. Region 9240 developed slowly and was quiet, the region could produce a major flare. Region 9242 developed slowly and could produce C flares and maybe event a minor M class flare. Region 9243 developed slowly and was quiet. Region 9244 developed further early in the day, however, recent magnetograms suggest that the region is decaying. New region 9245 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9246 emerged quickly in the southeast quadrant and could produce C and maybe a minor M class flare. Flares and CMEs No flares of significance were recorded on November 28. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm on November 29 and quiet to unsettled on November 30. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9236 20001118 9 N19W64 0530 DKO beta-gamma 9239 20001121 1 S21W14 0120 HSX 9240 20001122 23 N09W02 0280 DAC beta-gamma 9241 20001123 N21W85 plage 9242 20001124 12 N19E11 0140 DAO beta-gamma 9243 20001127 8 S12E16 0050 DAO 9244 20001127 14 N15W42 0100 DAO 9245 20001128 1 N04E65 0030 HSX 9246 20001128 6 S12E47 0030 BXO Total number of sunspots: 74 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 178.0 (1) 138.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]