Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 22, 2000 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 411 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 185.4, the planetary A index was 9 (3-hour K indices: 3222 3332, Boulder K indices: 3221 2221). Region 9229 was quiet and stable, the region is rotating over the west limb. Region 9231 decayed slowly and was quiet. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9232 was quiet and stable, as was region 9233. Region 9235 decayed slowly and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9236 was quiet and stable and could produce M class flares. Region 9237 became unstable and could produce C class flares and maybe even another minor M class flare. Region 9238 was quiet and stable. New region 9239 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Interesting regions are at and approaching the northeast limb and may be capable of M class flaring. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 21. Region 9237 produced a C1.4 flare at 15:38 and an impulsive M1.6 flare at 19:21 UTC. November 19-20: Region 9231 was the source of a long duration C7.2 event which began at 23:52 on Nov.19 and peaked at 00:36 UTC on Nov.20. A filament eruption was observed to the west of the region and an associated weak CME has a chance of influencing the geomagnetic field on November 22 or 23. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 19-20 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals on November 22-23. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 22-23 with a chance of a few active intervals. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9229 20001110 1 N08W76 0010 HSX 9231 20001113 26 S23W36 0360 FKI beta-gamma 9232 20001113 4 N25W31 0020 CRO 9233 20001114 2 N14W21 0010 AXX 9234 20001115 N19W60 plage 9235 20001116 18 N11W08 0160 FAI beta-gamma 9236 20001118 7 N20E32 0440 EHO 9237 20001118 7 N10W61 0040 CRO 9238 20001120 4 S22W21 0020 CSO 9239 20001121 1 S23E73 0100 HSX Total number of sunspots: 70 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 171.2 (1) 108.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]