Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 17, 2000 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled on November 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 374 and 452 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 154.2, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 1011 2123, Boulder K indices: 1101 1001). Region 9221 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9223 was quiet and stable and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9227 decayed and may be capable of isolated C class flaring. Region 9228 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9229 was quiet and stable. Region 9231 developed slowly and has M class flaring potential. Region 9232 was quiet and stable. Region 9233 developed slowly and could produce C flares. Region 9234 was quiet and is spotless early on November 17. New region 9235 rotated into view at the northeast limb, C class flaring and perhaps an isolated minor M class flare is possible Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on November 16. Region 9231 produced a long duration C8.9 event peaking at 00:40 UTC. A weak type II sweep was recorded and there was probably a CME, however, how extensive the CME was is difficult to tell as a backside full halo CME was in progress at the time. The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 15 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals on November 18. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 17-18. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9221 20001104 S11W87 plage 9223 20001105 1 S16W76 0010 AXX 9227 20001108 5 S10W60 0200 HAX 9228 20001109 N21W68 plage 9229 20001110 2 N06W09 0080 HSX 9231 20001113 32 S23E30 0370 FAC beta-gamma 9232 20001113 9 N26E35 0070 CAO 9233 20001114 5 N13E54 0060 CAO 9234 20001115 1 N23E08 0010 AXX 9235 20001116 7 N14E63 0130 CAO Total number of sunspots: 62 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 170.0 (1) 81.4 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]