Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 16, 2000 at 04:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 407 and 475 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 146.5, the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 1121 2222, Boulder K indices: 1112 1111). Region 9221 was mostly quiet and stable, as was region 9223. Region 9227 did not change significantly and could produce C and perhaps a minor M class flare. Regions 9228 and 9229 were quiet and stable. Region 9231 developed slowly and could produce minor M class flares. Region 9232 was quiet and stable, as was region 9233. New region 9234 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class events were recorded on November 15. Region 9223 generated a C5.7/1B flare at 02:46 UTC. Region 9231 was the source of a C1.7 flare at 18:22. Region 9231 produced a long duration C8.9 event peaking at 00:40 UTC on November 16. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 at 00:05 on November 16. Because there was no activity on the visible disk to explain this CME, it likely had a backside source. The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 15 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals on November 18. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 16-17. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9221 20001104 1 S11W74 0020 HRX 9223 20001105 3 S14W61 0030 HSX 9227 20001108 10 S11W41 0260 EKO 9228 20001109 4 N21W55 0030 CSO 9229 20001110 3 N06E05 0070 HAX 9231 20001113 22 S24E33 0320 EAI beta-gamma 9232 20001113 6 N24E48 0110 EAO 9233 20001114 1 N12E63 0050 HSX 9234 20001115 4 N20E22 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 54 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 171.1 (1) 76.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]