Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 14, 2000 at 03:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 512 and 628 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 143.7, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 1312 2333, Boulder K indices: 1312 1223). Region 9219 rotated off the visible disk. Region 9221 was quiet and stable, as was region 9223. Region 9227 became slightly more complex and may be capable of producing a minor M class flare. Region 9228 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9229 was quiet and stable. New region 9231 rotated into view at the southeast limb. New region 9232 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Both new regions are capable of C class flaring. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C class events were recorded on November 13. November 12: Region 9227 produced a long duration C4.4/1F event peaking at 14:26 UTC. This event involved the eruption of a filament stretching from southwest of the region until well east of the region. There may have been a weak, potentially geoeffective CME associated with this eruption. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 15-16 and could cause a few unsettled to active intervals on November 18-19. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 14. If there was a CME associated with the LDE on November 12, it could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on November 15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9219 20001101 1 N07W93 0050 HSX 9220 20001101 N12W86 plage 9221 20001104 3 S12W47 0070 CAO 9223 20001105 3 S16W34 0050 CAO 9227 20001108 10 S11W14 0190 EKO 9228 20001109 N20W29 plage 9229 20001110 3 N06E31 0070 HSX 9230 20001110 N07W78 plage 9231 20001113 6 S23E72 0140 DAO 9232 20001113 3 N26E76 0120 DAO Total number of sunspots: 29 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 174.7 (1) 67.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]