Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 13, 2000 at 04:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 581 and 776 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 146.6, the planetary A index was 21 (3-hour K indices: 3544 3422, Boulder K indices: 3544 3322). Region 9219 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9220 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on November 13. Region 9221 was quiet and stable, as was region 9223. Region 9225 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9227 developed slowly and produced a long duration event, early on November 13 the region is decaying. Regions 9228 and 9229 were quiet and stable. Region 9230 decayed into spotless plage. A spotted region is rotating into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on November 12. Region 9227 produced a long duration C4.4/1F event peaking at 14:26 UTC. This event involved the eruption of a filament stretching from southwest of the region until well east of the region. There may have been a potentially geoeffective CME associated with this eruption. LASCO images will have to be studied further to determine if this was the case. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 13 and quiet to unsettled on November 14. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9219 20001101 1 N06W81 0090 HSX 9220 20001101 1 N12W73 0000 AXX 9221 20001104 5 S12W35 0070 CAO 9223 20001105 4 S16W20 0070 CAO 9225 20001107 2 S20W78 0020 HAX 9227 20001108 15 S11W02 0180 EAO 9228 20001109 1 N20W16 0000 AXX 9229 20001110 3 N06E45 0060 HAX 9230 20001110 N07W65 plage Total number of sunspots: 32 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 177.3 (1) 64.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]