Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 11, 2000 at 06:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on November 10. A strong solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 06:00 UTC. Solar wind speed abruptly increased from 610 to 880 km/sec, later on the wind speed peaked at just above 1000 km/sec, the highest level recorded so far during solar cycle 23. A weak coronal stream was in progress at the time of the CME impact and likely reduced the severity of the solar storm. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 153.4, the planetary A index was 41 (3-hour K indices: 4366 6433, Boulder K indices: 4355 4332). Region 9218 was mostly quiet and stable, the region will rotate over the west limb today. Region 9219 was quiet and stable. Region 9220 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9221 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9223 and 9225. Region 9227 developed slowly and may be capable of C and minor M class flare production. Region 9228 was quiet and stable. New region 9229 rotated into view at the northeast limb. New region 9230 emerged in the northeast quadrant. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on November 10. Region 9218 produced a C2.3 flare at which began at 23:59 UTC and peaked at 00:12 UTC on November 11. The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 8-10 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions on November 11-13. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on November 11-12. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9218 20001101 1 N21W83 0090 HAX 9219 20001101 1 N07W56 0130 HSX 9220 20001101 9 N12W44 0020 CRO 9221 20001104 6 S12W08 0090 CAO 9223 20001105 1 S17E05 0090 HSX 9225 20001107 6 S20W48 0030 CAO 9227 20001108 10 S13E24 0180 EAO 9228 20001109 2 N20E18 0000 AXX 9229 20001110 2 N04E70 0080 HAX 9239 20001110 3 N05W39 0010 BXO Total number of sunspots: 41 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 183.1 (1) 56.2 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]