Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 9, 2000 at 05:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 407 and 500 km/sec. Unusual solar wind patterns were observed during the day with large variations in solar wind density. Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 172.8, the planetary A index was 15 (3-hour K indices: 2344 3313, Boulder K indices: 1344 3312). Region 9213 could produce C flares and maybe a minor M class flare before rotating off the visible disk late today. Region 9214 was quiet and stable and is rotating over the west limb. Region 9218 contributed to the major flare late in the day but was otherwise quiet. Region 9219 was quiet and stable. Region 9220 reemerged quickly and could produce C flares. Region 9221 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9222 and 9223. Region 9224 was quiet and stable. Region 9225 developed slowly and was quiet. New region 9226 emerged very quickly at the northwest limb, was unstable all day, and may be capable of further M class flare production from just behind the northwest limb. New region 9227 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 8 C and 3 M class events were recorded on November 8. Region 9226 produced a C5.2 flare at 06:28, a C4.0 flare at 07:55, an M1.5 flare at 09:58, a C5.7 flare at 11:42, an M2.9 flare at 16:36, a C6.8 flare at 18:16 and a C6.1 flare at 19:53 UTC. Regions 9212, 9213 and 9218 all contributed to a major M7.4/3F long duration event peaking at 23:23 UTC. The event started at 22:40 UTC and 20 minutes later a large proton event was observed at Earth. The above 100 MeV proton flux has so far reached 320 pfu, the above 50 MeV proton flux has reached 1900 pfu, while the above 10 MeV proton flux is still increasing and is approaching 10000 pfu. This is the second most important proton event so far in solar cycle 23, only surpassed by the huge X5 proton flare in July 2000. A large CME is likely to have been associated with the major flare. Although Earth will not receive a direct impact from this CME, a sideways (oblique) impact is likely. A full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C3 images from about 06h UTC. No corresponding activity was observed in EIT images and the source of this CME is likely to have been a region behind the southwest limb. The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 8-10 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions on November 11-13. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 9-10. Quiet to major storm is possible on November 11 as a coronal stream arrives. On this day the CME from the large eruption on November 8 could arrive as well and cause active to major storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless and will remain so until the currently strong polar cap absorption event ends. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9212 20001028 N10W73 plage 9213 20001028 4 N04W78 0080 CAO 9214 20001028 1 S08W84 0060 HSX 9218 20001101 2 N20W60 0130 HSX 9219 20001101 1 N05W28 0160 HSX 9220 20001101 7 N12W15 0040 DAO 9221 20001104 11 S12E20 0090 DAO 9222 20001105 1 N16W77 0050 HAX 9223 20001105 3 S16E33 0080 CAO 9224 20001107 4 N30W73 0030 CAO 9225 20001107 8 S20W30 0040 DSO 9226 20001108 2 N10W94 0050 CAO 9227 20001108 7 S13E52 0100 DAO Total number of sunspots: 51 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 188.9 (1) 46.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]