Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 8, 2000 at 02:20 UTC. Minor update posted at 09:59 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on November 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 405 and 611 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field was strongly southwards for the first half of the day, then gradually swung north and has been northwards since 15h UTC. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 179.9, the planetary A index was 39 (3-hour K indices: 5566 4442, Boulder K indices: 5555 4333). Region 9210 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9213 may be capable of producing another minor M flare before rotating over the west limb late on November 9. Region 9214 was quiet and stable. Region 9218 decayed and was quiet. Region 9219 was quiet and stable. Region 9220 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9221 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9222 was quiet and stable, as was region 9223. New region 9224 emerged near the northwest limb. New region 9225 emerged in the southwest quadrant. Comment added at 09:59 UTC on November 8: An M1.5 flare peaked at 09:57 UTC, the most likely location was in a new, very rapidly developing region at the northwest limb. This region has already produced several C flares over the last hours and could generate an additional M class flare. A full halo coronal mass ejection is currently visible in LASCO C3 images, most of the material is off the west limb and the event producing the CME probably had its origin somewhere in the southwest quadrant. When I'm able to view a movie of the event (provided it occurred on the visible disk!), another update will be posted. Flares and CMEs A total of 6 C and 1 M class events were recorded on November 7. Region 9210 produced a C1.5 flare at 00:11 UTC. Region 9213 was the source of a C3.4 flare at 03:47 and an M1.6/1F flare at 12:07 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 8-10 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions on November 11-13. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 8 and quiet to unsettled on November 9-10. Quiet to major storm is possible on November 11 as a coronal stream arrives. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9210 20001026 S26W80 plage 9212 20001028 N10W47 plage 9213 20001028 5 N02W64 0120 CAO 9214 20001028 3 S09W71 0080 CSO 9218 20001101 6 N20W42 0150 EAO 9219 20001101 2 N07W15 0150 HSX 9220 20001101 N08W05 plage 9221 20001104 7 S12E32 0110 DAO 9222 20001105 2 N16W62 0050 CSO 9223 20001105 2 S16E45 0060 CAO 9224 20001107 1 N28W61 0000 HSX 9225 20001107 2 S19W16 0020 DSO Total number of sunspots: 30 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 191.2 (1) 40.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]