Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 7, 2000 at 05:20 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on November 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 442 and 657 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 09:15 UTC. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 470 to 630 km/sec and the interplanetary magnetic field was initially mostly moderate to strongly southwards. is currently moderate to strongly southwards. A significant strengthening of the total field of the IMF occurred after 22h UTC, and the IMF has since then been strongly southwards. The source of the disturbance is the halo CME observed on November 3. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 178.1, the planetary A index was 42 (3-hour K indices: 3436 6564, Boulder K indices: 2334 6554). Region 9209 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9210 has become slightly more active and could produce further C class flares before rotating over the west limb on November 8. Region 9213 was quiet and stable. Region 9214 decayed further and was quiet, the region is spotless early on November 7. Region 9218 was generally unchanged, C class flares are possible, as may a minor M class flare be. Regions 9219 and 9220 were quiet and stable. Region 9221 developed slowly and could produce C flares. Region 9222 was quiet and stable, as was region 9223. Flares and CMEs Only 1 C class event was recorded on November 6. Region 9210 produced a C2.1 flare at 09:36 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 9-10 and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions on November 12-13. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on November 7 and quiet to active on November 8.. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9209 20001025 7 S22W82 0110 DSO 9210 20001026 3 S26W66 0020 CSO 9212 20001028 N10W47 plage 9213 20001028 5 N03W50 0100 HAX 9214 20001028 3 S09W58 0070 CSO 9218 20001101 17 N20W27 0210 ESO 9219 20001101 2 N06W02 0120 HSX 9220 20001101 4 N08E08 0010 BXO 9221 20001104 11 S14E46 0120 DAO 9222 20001105 4 N17W48 0040 DSO 9223 20001105 2 S18E58 0060 HSX Total number of sunspots: 58 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 193.1 (1) 36.8 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]