Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 6, 2000 at 05:10 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 445 and 610 km/sec under the influence of a weak coronal stream. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 186.4, the planetary A index was 10 (3-hour K indices: 3311 3333, Boulder K indices: 3221 2322). Region 9209 decayed slowly and could produce C flares before rotating over the west limb on November 7. Region 9210 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9212 decayed further and was quiet, the region is spotless early on November 6. Region 9213 was quiet and stable. Region 9214 decayed further and was quiet. Region 9218 was generally unchanged, C class flares are possible, as may a minor M class flare be. Regions 9219, 9220 and 9221 were quiet and stable. New region 9222 emerged fairly quickly to the north of region 9212. New region 9223 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 4 C class events were recorded on November 5. Region 9218 was the source of a long duration C5.4/1F event peaking at 01:49 UTC. This could be an interesting event, it occurred near the central meridian and may have involved a coronal mass ejection. Unfortunately there was a gap of several hours in LASCO images in the time after the flare and it is difficult to tell with certainty if there was a CME or not. Region 9209 generated a C2.9 flare at 16:03 UTC. November 3: Region 9213 was the source of a long duration C3.2 event which peaked at 19:02 UTC. This event occurred while the region was at the center of the solar disk and appears to have involved a filament eruption, extending from inside region 9213 and to the north of region 9212. A full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C3 from 22h UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 9-10. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled initially on November 6. Late in the day or early on November 7 the full halo CME observed on November 3 will likely arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9209 20001025 10 S22W69 0150 CAO 9210 20001026 3 S26W54 0030 CSO 9212 20001028 9 N10W34 0020 BXO 9213 20001028 4 N03W37 0110 HAX 9214 20001028 3 S09W45 0070 CSO 9218 20001101 16 N20W14 0240 ESO 9219 20001101 1 N06E12 0110 HSX 9220 20001101 6 N07E23 0020 CRO 9221 20001104 3 S16E58 0120 DSO 9222 20001105 7 N17W35 0060 DAO 9223 20001105 1 S19E71 0040 HSX Total number of sunspots: 63 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 196.1 (1) 31.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]