Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update November 3, 2000 at 01:15 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 1, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 406 km/sec. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 196.3, the planetary A index was 4 (3-hour K indices: 2101 1221, Boulder K indices: 2000 0201). Region 9206 was quiet and stable, as was region 9208. Region 9209 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9210 was quiet and stable. Region 9212 developed slowly and could generate C class flares. Region 9213 was quiet and stable. The separation between regions 9212 and 9213 is not obvious anymore and the two regions should be merged. Region 9214 was quiet and stable, minor M class flares are possible. Region 9217 was quiet and stable, the region is spotless early on November 3. Region 9218 has not developed much since early on November 2, actually the negative and positive polarities have drifted apart. Although minor M class flares are possible, this possibility has decreased significantly over the last day. Region 9219 was quiet and stable, as was region 9220. Flares and CMEs A total of 2 C class events were recorded on November 2. Region 9218 produced a C2.9 flare at 07:16 UTC. Region 9212 generated a C2.5 flare at 18:42 UTC. A large filament eruption occurred near region 9206 in the northwest quadrant. This eruption may have been triggered by a prominence eruption which occurred just after 16h UTC at the northwest limb. Although the major part of the coronal mass ejection was not directed at Earth, a small part of it could be headed our way. I will have to study LASCO images further to evaluate the possibility of a weak CME impact on November 5 or 6. November 1: A filament eruption was observed to the southeast of region 9214. This event started at 15:48 UTC in LASCO-EIT images. A full halo coronal mass ejection was seen in LASCO C3 images from 17:18 UTC. A terrestrial impact is likely on November 4. The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 2. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 3. On November 4 the CME observed on November 1 should arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A coronal stream will arrive on November 5 and cause the geomagnetic field to remain at unsettled to active levels. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9206 20001023 5 N23W72 0010 BXO 9207 20001023 S17W64 plage 9208 20001023 2 S10W56 0010 BXO 9209 20001025 13 S23W31 0140 DSO 9210 20001026 9 S27W17 0030 CSO 9212 20001028 26 N09E06 0090 CAO 9213 20001028 9 N03E04 0220 CAO 9214 20001028 17 S12E01 0160 ESO 9216 20001029 N17W59 plage 9217 20001101 3 S22W58 0030 CRO 9218 20001101 16 N19E26 0250 DAI 9219 20001101 1 N06E53 0120 HSX 9220 20001101 2 N09E62 0010 AXX Total number of sunspots: 103 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 120.7 (+0.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (119.6 predicted, -1.1) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (120.3 predicted, +0.7) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (122.4 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (122.5 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 (121.0 predicted, -1.5) 2000.10 167.4 100.1 (119.8 predicted, -1.2) 2000.11 200.4 (1) 14.0 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]