:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2000 Nov 07 2112 UT
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 October - 05 November 2000

Solar activity was low. Isolated C-class subflares occurred from a
number of largely unremarkable sunspot groups. Events of interest
included an optically uncorrelated, long-duration C2 X-ray flare at
01/1610 UTC associated with a full-halo CME, and a long-duration
C3/Sf flare at 03/1902 UTC from Region 9213 (N02, L = 270,
class/area Hax/250 on 04 November), also associated with a halo CME.

Data were available from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
spacecraft for most of the period. Two CME passages were observed
during the period. The first passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 31/1600 UTC followed by increased velocities (peaks to
480 km/sec) and densities, and a period of sustained southward IMF
Bz with deflections to minus 13 nT (GSM). The second CME passed the
spacecraft at approximately 04/0130 UTC accompanied by a southward
turning of IMF Bz with deflections to minus 15 nT, increased
densities, and increased velocities that eventually reached a peak
of 650 km/sec on 05 November.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was
enhanced during 30 October - 02 November, but did not reach event
levels. The enhancement was due to an M4/2B flare on 29 October.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels on 31 October. Fluxes were at normal to moderate
levels for the rest of the period.

The geomagnetic field was disturbed during 30 - 31 October with
isolated active to minor storm periods. Activity declined to mostly
quiet levels during 01 - 03 November. Active to minor storm levels
were observed on 04 November following a sudden impulse of 12 nT at
04/0222 UTC. Activity declined to quiet to unsettled levels on 05
November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 November - 04 December 2000

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated
M-class flares may occur sometime during the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach moderate to high levels during 12 - 13 and 19 - 20 November.
Otherwise, normal to moderate fluxes are expected.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels during 08, 11 - 12, and 18 - 19 November. Otherwise, quiet to
unsettled levels are expected, barring an Earth-directed CME.


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