Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 30, 2000 at 04:45 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update October 20, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 329 and 421 km/sec. Since late on October 29 and early on October 30 the geomagnetic field appears to be under the influence of a coronal stream. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 187.1, the planetary A index was 26 (3-hour K indices: 5544 4332, Boulder K indices: 5535 3321). Region 9206 was quiet and stable, as were regions 9207 and 9208. Region 9209 did not change significantly and may actually have become slightly less complex after the M flare early in the day. Further M class flares are possible. Region 9210 was quiet and stable. Region 9211 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9212 could produce M class flares. Region 9213 was quiet and stable. Region 9214 developed slowly and may be capable of minor M class flare production. New region 9215 emerged in the northwest quadrant near the northwest limb. New region 9216 emerged in the northwest quadrant near the central meridian. Flares and CMEs A total of 3 C and 1 M class events were recorded on October 29. Region 9209 generated an M4.4/2B flare at 01:57 UTC. A strong type II sweep was observed as well. Although no new LASCO images have been available since October 26, there is a high probability the CME associated with the M4.4 flare will impact Earth. This could happen sometime between early on October 31 and early on November 1. The geomagnetic field will likely be at active to major storm levels after the impact, isolated severe storm intervals are possible. Region 9212 produced a C3.4 flare at 00:52 and a C5.4 flare at 05:50 UTC. Region 9214 was the source of a C3.1/1F flare at 06:16 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 3. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on October 30 and quiet to major storm on October 31-November 1. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9206 20001023 4 N22W22 0030 CAO 9207 20001023 3 S17W12 0010 BXO 9208 20001023 2 S09W03 0010 CSO 9209 20001025 23 S24E21 0270 DAI beta-gamma 9210 20001026 8 S29E35 0090 CAO 9211 20001027 N33W66 plage 9212 20001028 7 N08E61 0270 DAO beta-gamma 9213 20001028 4 N02E57 0210 HSX 9214 20001028 6 S11E55 0190 DSO 9215 20001029 4 N20W57 0010 BXO 9216 20001029 2 N17W07 0000 AXX Total number of sunspots: 63 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.0 predicted, +1.2) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (121.3 predicted, +0.3) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (122.8 predicted, +1.5) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (124.9 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.5 (125.0 predicted, +0.1) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 2000.10 165.6 (1) 129.5 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]