Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update October 15, 2000 at 12:05 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update August 10, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on October 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 354 and 475 km/sec. Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 163.3, the planetary A index was 42 (3-hour K indices: 3356 6544, Boulder K indices: 3455 4444). Region 9182 produced quite a few flares and rotated off the visible disk. Region 9184 reemerged with a few spots but will rotate off the visible disk late today. Region 9188 was quiet and stable. Region 9189 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9190 was quiet and stable. Region 9191 decayed into spotless plage. Region 9192 decayed slowly and was quiet. Region 9193 developed slowly and could produce C flares. Region 9194 could produce further C class flares. Region 9195 rotated off the visible disk. Region 9196 decayed slowly and was quiet, the region will rotate off the visible disk today. New region 9198 rotated into view at the southeast limb. Old region 9169 has rotated into view today with currently only a single spot showing. Flares and CMEs A total of 13 C and 1 M class events were recorded on October 14. Region 9197 produced a C3.3 flare at 01:35 UTC. Region 9194 generated a C2.7 flare at 02:31, a C4.1 flare at 12:48 and a C3.9 flare at 14:12 UTC. Region 9182 was the source of a C2.8 flare at 07:05, an M1.1 flare at 08:40 and a C8.4 flare at 12:05 UTC. Region 9187 produced a C8.7 flare at 10:53 UTC while region 9198 managed a C3.9 flare at 22:54 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on October 13-14. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled today and most of October 16. A coronal stream will likely arrive late on October 16 and will last until October 18, unsettled to minor storm can be expected during this interval, perhaps with an isolated major storm interval. The effects from a halo CME observed on October 14 could reach Earth early on October 17 and cause active to major storming. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual no. Location at region numbered sunspots midnight Area Classification Comment 9181 20001002 S28W86 plage 9182 20001002 6 N04W90 0240 DKI beta-gamma 9184 20001003 3 S14W77 0020 DRO plage 9187 20001008 N21W87 plage 9188 20001008 3 S07W48 0010 CSO 9189 20001008 N14W19 plage 9190 20001008 17 S17W04 0080 DAO 9191 20001010 N18E16 plage 9192 20001011 9 S13W38 0020 CRO 9193 20001011 12 N05W46 0140 DSO 9194 20001012 8 S12E36 0060 DAO 9196 20001012 6 S34W77 0030 CRO 9197 20001012 N25E42 plage 9198 20001014 3 S30E65 0030 BXO Total number of sunspots: 67 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 116.6 (+3.8) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 119.8 (+3.2) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (121.7 predicted, +1.9) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (122.5 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (124.1 predicted, +1.6) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 (126.2 predicted, +2.1) 2000.08 163.0 130.6 (124.8 predicted, -1.4) 2000.09 182.1 109.9 2000.10 166.6 (1) 67.6 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]