Solar Terrestrial Activity Report [Image] Last update August 15, 2000 at 03:50 UTC. [Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)] [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)] [Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Solar cycles 1-20] [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 4, 2000)] [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2000 (last update August 10, 2000)] Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 443 and 572 km/sec. A disturbance arrived at approximately 21:40 UTC at ACE. Solar wind speed changed abruptly, however, the interplanetary magnetic field did not display the sudden change usually accompanying the arrival of a CME. Anyway the IMF has weakened and been mostly northwards since the arrival of the disturbance. Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 190, the planetary A index was 12 (3-hour K indices: 2222 3334, Boulder K indices: 2112 2324). Region 9114 was quiet and stable and is rotating off the visible disk. Region 9115 was quiet and stable. Region 9121 decayed and was quiet, the region is rotating over the west limb. Regions 9122 and 9123 were quiet and stable. Region 9124 developed slowly and may be capable of occasional C class flaring. Region 9125 developed further and still has a weak magnetic delta configuration. Minor M class flares are possible. Region 9126 was mostly unchanged and could produce occasional C class flares, the region will rotate over the west limb today. Region 9127 developed slowly and could produce occasional C class flares. Region 9128 was quiet and stable. Region 9129 developed slowly and could produce further C class flares. Regions 9130 and 9131 were quiet and stable. New region 9132 emerged near the northeast limb. New region 9133 emerged near the central meridian in the southeast quadrant. New region 9134 rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flares and CMEs A total of 5 C class events were recorded on August 14. Region 9126 produced a C8.1/1F flare at 05:08 UTC. Region 9129 generated a C5.5/1F flare at 07:42, a C2.2 flare at 12:56 and a C1.6 flare at 23:35 UTC. Region 9125 was the source of a C1.6 flare at 19:48 UTC. The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level. Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 12 and could cause unsettled to active intervals on August 15. Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass M and X class flares (3) ejections (2) [Coronal hole indicator][CME indicator] [M and X class flare indicator] 1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability. Active solar regions (Recent map) Solar Date Actual Location region numbered no. at Area Classification Comment sunspots midnight 9114 20000802 6 N11W82 0160 CAO 9115 20000803 1 N19W66 0100 HSX 9116 20000804 S12W67 plage 9120 20000806 S22W82 plage 9121 20000806 1 S33W78 0000 AXX 9122 20000807 5 N22W45 0020 BXO 9123 20000808 4 N17W07 0020 CSO 9124 20000810 8 S12E20 0020 BXO 9125 20000810 44 N25E15 0260 DAI beta-gamma-delta 9126 20000811 5 N06W84 0050 CSO 9127 20000811 6 S37W18 0040 CAO 9128 20000812 7 N12E32 0030 CSO 9129 20000812 3 S06E48 0120 DAO 9130 20000813 6 S23W26 0020 BXO 9131 20000813 1 N13E58 0090 HSX 9132 20000814 4 N23E52 0020 BXO 9133 20000814 4 S09E03 0010 BXO 9134 20000814 1 N06E65 0010 HRX Total number of sunspots: 106 Monthly solar data Month Average solar International sunspot Smoothed sunspot flux number number 1999.07 165.6 113.5 94.3 (+1.2) 1999.08 170.7 93.7 97.5 (+3.2) 1999.09 135.7 71.5 102.3 (+4.8) 1999.10 164.8 116.7 107.8 (+5.5) 1999.11 191.5 133.2 110.9 (+3.1) 1999.12 169.8 84.6 111.0 (+0.1) 2000.01 158.1 90.1 112.8 (+1.8) 2000.02 174.1 112.9 (117.0 predicted, +4.2) 2000.03 208.2 138.5 (120.7 predicted, +3.7) 2000.04 184.2 125.3 (122.9 predicted, +2.2) 2000.05 184.9 120.8 (123.7 predicted, +0.8) 2000.06 179.8 124.9 (125.3 predicted, +1.6) 2000.07 202.3 169.1 2000.08 170.4 (1) 77.7 (2) 1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ [DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News] [StudyWeb]